Models were rerun for measles, rubella, meningitis A, Hepatitis B, HPV and yellow fever. Four scenarios were run: no-vaccination, default-update, default-update-catchup, default-nocovid. The impacts were calculated generally as:
default_nocovid = novax - default_nocovid,
default_update = novax - default_update,
default_catchup = default_update - default_update_catchup,
but we also consider default_nocovid-default_update. The time period we consider is 2020 to 2030.
|
disease |
AFR |
EMR |
EUR |
PAHO |
SEAR |
WPR |
Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
HPV |
96 (95%[86, 106]) med=96 |
0 (95%[0, 0]) med=0 |
1 (95%[1, 1]) med=1 |
13 (95%[12, 15]) med=13 |
-86 (95%[-123, -53]) med=-85 |
3 (95%[2, 4]) med=3 |
26 (95%[-12, 61]) med=29 |
|
HepB |
315 (95%[279, 354]) med=312 |
15 (95%[9, 22]) med=15 |
0 (95%[0, 0]) med=0 |
0 (95%[0, 0]) med=0 |
122 (95%[95, 143]) med=122 |
67 (95%[48, 82]) med=67 |
518 (95%[456, 572]) med=520 |
|
Measles |
26,498 (95%[4,884, 79,034]) med=17,637 |
2,918 (95%[927, 13,999]) med=1,444 |
642 (95%[283, 1,360]) med=456 |
1,389 (95%[74, 3,849]) med=1,027 |
12,899 (95%[5,529, 35,276]) med=9,727 |
199 (95%[-221, 1,565]) med=77 |
44,544 (95%[13,794, 130,657]) med=30,435 |
|
MenA |
2 (95%[0, 11]) med=0 |
|
|
|
|
|
2 (95%[0, 11]) med=0 |
|
Rubella |
2 (95%[-70, 47]) med=4 |
14 (95%[-265, 287]) med=5 |
264 (95%[-1, 946]) med=211 |
30 (95%[-2, 160]) med=6 |
19 (95%[-5, 75]) med=29 |
0 (95%[-15, 13]) med=0 |
329 (95%[-107, 1,148]) med=303 |
|
YF |
3,499 (95%[1,247, 6,817]) med=3,200 |
217 (95%[50, 701]) med=162 |
|
-15 (95%[-58, 18]) med=-12 |
|
|
3,701 (95%[1,455, 7,003]) med=3,463 |
|
Total |
30,410 (95%[9,033, 83,115]) med=21,351 |
3,163 (95%[973, 14,568]) med=1,693 |
906 (95%[318, 1,794]) med=847 |
1,417 (95%[77, 3,907]) med=1,090 |
12,954 (95%[5,551, 35,321]) med=9,819 |
268 (95%[-162, 1,629]) med=150 |
49,119 (95%[17,248, 134,941]) med=34,713 |
Catch-up activities as we have modelled them would avert 18321 (95%[6246, 58522], 80%[7321, 38465], 50%[9261, 23029]) med =12485 deaths between calendar years 2020-2030 and 111530 (95%[90458, 148304], 80%[96155, 131645], 50%[101994, 117811]) med =109300 between birth cohorts 2020-2030.
This represents 37.54% (95%[16.73%, 61.49%]) med=37.04 of excess deaths between calendar years 2020 and 2030 [numerator 18321 (95%[6246, 58522]) med=12485, denominator 49119 (95%[17248, 134941]) med=34713] due to disruptions or 78.9% (95%[40.36%, 151.35%]) med=76.37 of excess deaths between calendar years 2023 and 2030 [numerator 18900 (95%[7037, 60223]) med=13029, denominator 25356 (95%[9859, 75073]) med=15856].
|
disease |
AFR |
EMR |
EUR |
PAHO |
SEAR |
WPR |
Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
HPV |
143 (95%[116, 176]) med=141 |
0 (95%[0, 0]) med=0 |
1 (95%[0, 1]) med=1 |
23 (95%[20, 26]) med=23 |
95 (95%[53, 137]) med=96 |
4 (95%[2, 6]) med=4 |
266 (95%[206, 330]) med=265 |
|
HepB |
216 (95%[181, 256]) med=217 |
6 (95%[2, 11]) med=5 |
0 (95%[0, 0]) med=0 |
0 (95%[0, 0]) med=0 |
53 (95%[36, 70]) med=53 |
36 (95%[27, 50]) med=35 |
310 (95%[260, 368]) med=311 |
|
Measles |
7,148 (95%[536, 38,127]) med=2,725 |
1,505 (95%[441, 4,766]) med=1,099 |
86 (95%[-8, 265]) med=74 |
329 (95%[-33, 1,346]) med=197 |
7,013 (95%[1,997, 16,990]) med=6,168 |
158 (95%[-5, 951]) med=50 |
16,239 (95%[4,187, 57,331]) med=10,195 |
|
MenA |
0 (95%[0, 0]) med=0 |
|
|
|
|
|
0 (95%[0, 0]) med=0 |
|
Rubella |
2 (95%[-52, 45]) med=3 |
-4 (95%[-322, 237]) med=0 |
21 (95%[-131, 215]) med=6 |
-18 (95%[-168, 18]) med=0 |
9 (95%[-19, 44]) med=12 |
0 (95%[-15, 16]) med=0 |
10 (95%[-343, 274]) med=21 |
|
YF |
1,513 (95%[369, 3,244]) med=1,391 |
0 (95%[0, 0]) med=0 |
|
-17 (95%[-79, 28]) med=-14 |
|
|
1,496 (95%[325, 3,231]) med=1,378 |
|
Total |
9,022 (95%[1,706, 39,882]) med=4,819 |
1,508 (95%[332, 4,723]) med=1,112 |
108 (95%[-60, 371]) med=94 |
317 (95%[-105, 1,360]) med=186 |
7,170 (95%[2,182, 17,178]) med=6,331 |
197 (95%[35, 998]) med=89 |
18,321 (95%[6,246, 58,522]) med=12,485 |
|
disease |
AFR |
EMR |
EUR |
PAHO |
SEAR |
WPR |
Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
HPV |
105,807 (95%[95,134, 116,579]) med=105,694 |
4,406 (95%[3,249, 5,543]) med=4,414 |
-1,077 (95%[-1,286, -869]) med=-1,082 |
-3,332 (95%[-3,897, -2,770]) med=-3,323 |
-34,296 (95%[-37,207, -31,075]) med=-34,390 |
-4,686 (95%[-5,839, -3,533]) med=-4,700 |
66,822 (95%[55,562, 77,842]) med=66,347 |
|
HepB |
11,915 (95%[7,512, 17,862]) med=11,578 |
1,064 (95%[638, 1,608]) med=1,044 |
46 (95%[22, 77]) med=44 |
125 (95%[83, 171]) med=124 |
4,765 (95%[3,084, 7,003]) med=4,592 |
1,824 (95%[1,039, 3,187]) med=1,734 |
19,738 (95%[13,533, 26,889]) med=19,688 |
|
Measles |
7,030 (95%[943, 34,196]) med=3,205 |
1,646 (95%[702, 4,449]) med=1,322 |
48 (95%[-57, 177]) med=48 |
485 (95%[218, 1,270]) med=358 |
7,091 (95%[2,583, 14,828]) med=6,466 |
262 (95%[110, 998]) med=156 |
16,562 (95%[5,460, 54,138]) med=11,542 |
|
MenA |
0 (95%[0, 0]) med=0 |
|
|
|
|
|
0 (95%[0, 0]) med=0 |
|
Rubella |
2 (95%[-52, 45]) med=3 |
-4 (95%[-322, 237]) med=0 |
21 (95%[-131, 215]) med=6 |
-18 (95%[-168, 18]) med=0 |
9 (95%[-19, 44]) med=12 |
0 (95%[-15, 16]) med=0 |
10 (95%[-343, 274]) med=21 |
|
YF |
8,609 (95%[1,322, 18,456]) med=8,192 |
0 (95%[0, 0]) med=0 |
|
-211 (95%[-895, 267]) med=-172 |
|
|
8,398 (95%[721, 18,253]) med=8,006 |
|
Total |
133,363 (95%[114,508, 158,912]) med=131,691 |
7,112 (95%[5,431, 10,129]) med=6,995 |
-962 (95%[-1,209, -715]) med=-962 |
-2,952 (95%[-3,891, -1,767]) med=-2,973 |
-22,431 (95%[-28,446, -12,985]) med=-22,865 |
-2,600 (95%[-4,104, -969]) med=-2,682 |
111,530 (95%[90,458, 148,304]) med=109,300 |
Highlighted if median is greater than 200 at any point, only figures where the abs(median) excess is >50 are included.
Highlighted if median is greater than 200 at any point, only figures where the abs(median) excess is >50 are included.